Back to HOMEPAGE Labour and LibDems trounced at
Glasgow East by-election
James Irvine
Cultybraggan Farm, Comrie, Perthshire
Filed 27 Jul 08
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From the time Scotland's devolved Holyrood Parliament was created in 1999 to the general election for the Scottish Parliament in May 2007, a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats held power. This then changed. The Scottish National Party gained power with a majority of a single seat.
On Thursday 24th July, Labour lost in the Glasgow East Westminster by-election to the Scottish National Party (SNP), albeit by only 365 votes and after a recount. The Liberal Democrats lost their deposit, coming fourth to the Scottish Conservatives. The turnout was considered good at 42%.
Glasgow East had been in Labour hands since 1922. At the last election for this Westminster seat the labour MP, who had retired an account of ill-health, had a majority of 13,500. It was one of Labour's strongest strongholds.
While the SNP's main mission is to obtain total independence of Scotland from Westminster, on this occasion that was not the thrust of their lobbying. Alex Salmond had conveniently kicked that one into touch by saying that he would hold a referendum on independence in three years time, and not before then. Meantime he was clearly concentrating on trying to show that the SNP can run a competent government and, in particular, can stand up for Scotland's interests. As most Scots are still not interested in breaking up the Union, it was key that the SNP did not make independence a prominent topic at this by-election.
Glasgow East is one of the most deprived areas in the UK. It has been thus for a very long time, and continues to be. Labour, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, had nowhere to hide, because they had been in power in Scotland for 8 years, up to 2007. Labour had been in power at Westminster for over 10 years. Gordon Brown, a Scot, had been Chancellor of the Exchequer during the economic "nice" decade, and was now Prime Minister. But the gulf between the rich and the poor had widened. Money had been thrown at ideological projects but the core problems remained. Glasgow East is among the worst areas for alcoholism, drug abuse and crime. Career aspirations are low, with high unemployment. There was widespread disillusionment with Tony Blair, the smooth salesman who had been shown to be more hype than substance. He is thought by too many that he may have tricked the citizens of the UK into going to war with Iraq: a war that many Scots (among others) did not want.
It seems likely that few of the Glasgow East electorate actually knew who their previous Westminster MP was. Labour was just there, and had always been there: be it the Council or Government. And, in all this time, no one seemed to be able to do anything to significantly improve the level of serious deprivation that characterises the region that was now the centre of attention in this by-election. Elsewhere in the UK Labour had lost the last two by-elections. They had lost the post of mayor of London and they had suffered severe losses at the local elections in England, with the Conservatives gaining momentum. The polls showed Prime Minister Gordon Brown to have impressively low ratings. Likewise his party. Ever since Gordon Brown had dithered over whether or not to hold a general election shortly after he became Prime Minister his course has been steeply downhill.
Gordon Brown, the self-proclaimed "prudent" Chancellor for 10 years had wasted the prosperous years on altruistic policies that were poorly administered. There was nothing left in the kitty when the global economic climate changed. Moreover, as the bugs came out of the woodwork it became apparent that the too many of the massive public organisations were displaying indisputable signs of systemic failure: be they the Financial Standards Agency (the Treasury), DEFRA, the Home Office, etc. Data security continues to be a joke. Huge amounts of money had been thrown at education and the health service but with little evidence of much benefit in their delivery. While the government claimed that overall the crime figures were better, there has recently been a spate of knife killings perpetrated by the young.
A bright spark, eminently street-wise and an excellent communicator, in the form of Scotland's First Minister, Alex Salmond, saw his opportunity. And he took it. Indeed, he appeared at Glasgow East no less than nine times during the run up to polling day, saying that he wanted to stand up for Scotland. The discipline within the SNP cabinet was such that virtually all SNP Ministers attended Glasgow East to do their bit, plus a veritable army of canvassers. The SNP is well funded , largely with the help from a few major donors, while the Labour Party is millions of pounds in debt.
By contrast, Labour Ministers from Westminster only visited the constituency under cover, avoiding the attention of the media. The Prime Minister did not show up, on the pretext that Prime Ministers do not attend by-elections. Perhaps the Labour hierarchy were scared of the reception they might get.
The Scottish Labour Party is leaderless, following the messy debacle over Wendy Alexander's expenses for her promotion campaign for the one-horse race for the party leadership not so long ago. She claimed that she asked for advice as to whether some £900 should be declared, but she allegedly did not ask for that advice until after the deadline had passed. In her position she should have known. Apart from that, her communication skills with the public are truly abysmal.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats were also leaderless. Nicol Stephen recently announced his resignation with immediate effect, so that he could spend more time with his young family. Fine, but not what is wanted from a leader who claimed to be dedicated to the furtherance of his party.
So Alex Salmond was rewarded with an incredible 22% swing from Labour to the SNP. Commenting on the success of the SNP, Alex Salmond's message to Gordon Brown was "Change your policies or change your job".
Another matter of interest in this Glasgow East by-election for a seat at Westminster was the sea-change in approach by the Scottish Conservatives. Previously, Glasgow East was virtually a no-go area for anyone wearing a blue rosette. Not any longer. They fielded a bright young black woman, who spoke Glasgow, who was a shop steward and who had plenty of get-up-and-go. Not a blue rinse in sight. She was articulate and to the point. She pushed the Liberal Democrat candidate into fourth place, and to lose his deposit.
That was some by-election! Riveting stuff. Docile, ineffective Scottish MPs at Westminster must be wondering if they are going to have a job in 18 months to two years time when a general election is due. Likewise, Labour MSPs must also be wondering about their future three years on. Do many of them have any convincing qualifications that would make them employable in the real world? They have good cause to be worried. In Scotland, many were not even elected, simply being on a party's list.
As for Gordon Brown? Well his task the next day was to attend a trade union conference at Warwick University when the Labour Party's paymasters will be trying to influence Labour's future policy. What he has to do is to drastically reduce the amount of public spending while improving services. Since the total numbers of public employees will need to be substantially reduced, that means that those who remain employed in central and local government will need to work much more efficiently. Duplication and incompetence must be tackled: likewise any smell of corruption. Fat chance when those at the receiving end are Labour's paymasters.
A summer of discontent looms. The political forecast is dire. Things are set to get worse and worse for the UK until Gordon Brown (or his successor) is forced to call a general election and another party takes over. That cannot come soon enough if the breakup of the UK is to be avoided. The longer the Labour debacle goes on, the stronger the SNP gets. The SNP will continue to work hard to be popular in Scotland with the aim of getting a referendum on independence in three years time going their way. Is that what we really want?
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