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Swine Flu in Scotland
Dr James Irvine
Teviot Scientific
Filed 27 Apr 09
©James Irvine
A honeymoon couple recently returning from Mexico to Scotland have today been confirmed to have "Swine Flu". It is caused by the H1N1 virus. This is a highly significant occurrence for the following basic reasons.
It would appear to be a real occurrence - not just a threat - of a virus that is common in livestock transforming by genetic mutation so as to be able to infect man, and then spread from human to human. This was the big fear in relation to Avian Flu. It is the basic ingredient for another pandemic.
What is different from Avian Flu is the fact that the transmission of the Swine Flu virus from human to human occurs with conspicuous ease. Witness the number of cases in Mexico and increasingly so throughout the world. The extent and rapidity of modern travel will ensure that such an infectious virus will go global very quickly.
The genetic make-up of the Swine Flu virus is such that existing vaccines will not be sufficiently effective to control it. The match is considered not to be good enough.
However, the Swine Flu virus is currently susceptible to one of the antiviral drugs that the UK, and other countries such a France, have stockpiled in quantity. The UK has 30 million doses. But the virus is likely to gain resistance to the antiviral agent rather too quickly for comfort.
The authorities appear perplexed that the virulence of the Swine Flu virus (as indicated by the severity of symptoms and the death rate) in Mexico seems to be much higher than the same virus in other countries around the globe. Consequently, the authorities in the UK are simply advocating vigilance. "It is not a pandemic yet", they say in an effort to avoid panic. "We appear to have a milder form of Swine Flu," they reassure.
But is it not possible that the reason for the difference in virulence of the Swine Flu virus as it infects people in Mexico compared to its track record - so far - in other countries, is because the virus has had a free run in Mexico for some considerable time before its inherent danger was recognised? That would have allowed numerous passages from person to person in the densely populated and gregarious cities and resorts of Mexico. With each passage, the virulence of the virus could well increase: a well recognised characteristic of some viruses.
Perhaps the rest of the world outside Mexico has so far been lucky: that the virus that has spread has not yet undergone too many passages through too many persons. Reports on the morbidity of Swine Flu infection outside Mexico have indeed been mild. But if the virus gets a hold in the UK, or elsewhere, it could readily pass from person to person, gaining virulence as it goes. We could then be in for a very different scenario. A true pandemic of serious dimension.
It would seem that at least some of the authorities may be taking a rather too relaxed approach to the situation, waiting to see if a pandemic arises. Some authorities say that they are prepared for it. What they should be doing is taking as many steps as possible, even at this comparatively late date, to prevent the virus from spreading from person to person. That would involve restricting travel to infected areas and controlling situations where people meet in substantial numbers, such as schools, universities and places of entertainment.
Such restrictions would have major economic consequences. But a pandemic would be much worse.
One hears with alarm epidemiological models being quoted that claim that controlling the movement of people would have no effect. But many of us remember just how fallacious epidemiological models were during the Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak UK 2001 and since.
As with the previous threat of the SARS virus, the world's scientific community should urgently collaborate to produce an effective vaccine to the mutant strain of Swine Fever Virus as soon as ever possible. The urgent and effective application of science, by many centres in many countries, produced an impressive contribution to the control of SARS, through the production of a new vaccine in record time. Because the current viral threat transmits from human to human so easily, we now need the same again for Swine Flu. And quick.
©James Irvine
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