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EPIC Report on the risk assessment of
Bluetongue reaching Scotland is
not due until end of April
James Irvine
Teviot Scientific, Cultybraggan Farm, Comrie, Perthshire
Filed 04 Apr 08
©www.land-care.org.uk
There is mounting concern - indeed alarm - that the Scottish Government has not yet ordered any Bluetongue serotype 8 vaccine for Scotland. This in spite of the unanimous agreement within Scotland's livestock industry that it wants the vaccine.
The concern is increased by the fact that more countries are placing massive orders with the vaccine manufacturers for the vaccine, the first deliveries of which are allegedly scheduled for later this month to England and to France. Defra placed an order for 20 million dose for England and 2.5 million doses for Wales on 20th December 2007 (1). In view of the fact that the risk of Bluetongue virus reaching England was recognised as far back as 2002, and was obvious in 2006 and throughout 2007 as the virus wrought havoc in northern continental Europe, Defra was much too late in placing such an order. Moreover, it ordered far too little for an effective vaccination policy. Worse still, Defra made vaccination voluntary. Scotland, therefore cannot rely on England being able to confine the spread of the disease. Indeed, with each new announcement of the boundaries of the Restriction Zones (Protection and Surveillance combined), the northern limit of the Surveillance zone creeps ever nearer to Cumbria and hence to Scotland.
The vaccination policy, dictated by the European Commission (EC), fails to make scientific sense. It waits for disease to arrive before it permits vaccination against it, unless a Bluetongue-free country or zone arbitrarily declares itself to be a Protection Zone. But a Protection Zone has to allow free movement of livestock from any other Protection Zone within the EU, where Bluetongue disease is rife, and before vaccination can possibly be effective. It takes up to 6 weeks after vaccination for effective immunity to be fully established in cattle.
The National Beef Association Scotland is raising a petition against these very damaging EC directives (2).
But even within the present context of the EC rules as to when vaccination against Bluetongue Disease can be used, why is it that the Scottish Government has so far failed to order any vaccine from any of the suppliers? Commonsense must surely indicate that Scotland is at risk for Bluetongue virus to reach north of the border this early summer, or autumn. There is now a queue of international dimension to get the vaccine. This queue can only be joined once a definite order is placed. So why is the Scottish Government continuing to prevaricate?
The Scottish Government seems to take the remarkable view that hopefully - with fingers crossed - a little of the disease in mild of form in southern Scotland would be alright, if only we can get by without too much damage until the next Vector Free Period (when the midges are less active) at the very end of the year. This plan, it asserts, is the best that can be done in order to keep to the EC rules.
But what if keeping fingers crossed does not work, and bluetongue disease arrives in Scotland earlier than hoped? The EC would declare a Protection Zone, we could (belatedly) vaccinate but we have no vaccine because we did not order it in time.
So, in order to help them with their finger-crossing exercise, the Scottish Government commissioned a study as late as December 2007 to be undertaken by the organisation called EPIC.
What is the organisation called EP|C?
EPIC stands for Epidemiological and Population Health and Infectious Diseases Control Centre. It is a consortium of six scientific establishments in Scotland
Glasgow Veterinary School
Edinburgh University's Centre for Infectious Diseases
Moredun Institute
SAC (Scottish Agricultural College)
Aberdeen's Macauley Land Use Research Institute
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland Research Institute
The EPIC consortium is headed up by Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University, who is an epidemiological modeller of FMD UK2001 fame. The current project on the risk of Bluetongue Disease reaching Scotland and the economic implications of various scenarios is lead by Professor George Gunn, an epidemiologist at SAC Inverness.
Professor George Gunn (left) and Professor Bill McKelvey at George Gunn's
inaugural address as Professor of Population Medicine and Zoonoses,
SAC Inverness 15th February 2008
(Photo SAC
website)
Professor Gunn gave his inaugural address as Professor of Population Medicine and Zoonoses (SAC) at Inverness on 15th February 2008. The SAC website, in summarising his lecture, states:
"Professor Gunn will go on to describe how he and his research team have built upon the language of veterinary medicine, layering it with statistics, mathematics, economics and a smattering of social science to pool existing information together in statistical and mathematical models, blending the results with economics and and findings from social science to feed the need for improved decision making about animal diseases and their control"
In other words he is yet another epidemiological modeller: a band of scientists who seem to have captured the lucrative high ground regarding scientific advise to governments, be they in Westminster or Holyrood. They have apparently done this on the basis that advice should be "evidence based", rather than simply applying commonsense using fundamental scientific principles. What did Professor Gunn have to say about the awaited EPIC report?
Because of the increasing concern - indeed dismay - at the delay by the Scottish Government to order any Bluetongue vaccine, I spoke with Professor Gunn to ascertain if there had been a delay in the provision of the EPIC Report that he was chairing. It was previously billed to be available on 21st March 2008.
He confirmed that the Report had been commissioned in December 2007. He told me that the Report would not be available until the end of this month, April. The delay, he said, was due to problems relating to "procurement" (i.e. contractural arrangements between the EP|C and the Scottish Government). He explained that this was a very short timescale for such a complicated piece of work.
Professor Gunn was apparently unaware as to whether Bluetongue vaccine against serotype 8 had been ordered or not for Scotland. He was understandably unsure whether waiting for the EP|C Report to be completed was a factor in the delay in ordering the vaccine. There could well be other factors. Yet what is the point of commissioning an in depth report on the subject if the Scottish Government is not going to wait to consider its findings?
But one has to wonder why the Scottish Government commissioned such a complicated report, which was scheduled, even with the initial time frame, to cause delay. Furthermore, with all due respect to the six scientific establishments involved, it should be asked what reliance can be put on whatever they predict? There are too many variables. The risk is obvious. The track history of epidemiological modellers and their predictions are notorious for being consistently wide of the mark. Why should this report be any different?
Rather, the six scientific organisations that make up EPIC should be questioning how the threat of Bluetongue disease reaching Scotland in the next few months is being handled from a much broader perspective: not just confining themselves to the specific remit commissioned by their paymasters, the Scottish Government.
It should not require a commissioned research study to inform that viral diseases are best controlled by vaccination BEFORE the disease arrives, when it is abundantly clear that there must be a high risk of it doing so. It does not really matter whether the risk is assessed as medium or high: it is certainly not low. The consequences of the disease arriving, and spreading unchecked by Scotland's abundant midges, are dire for Scotland's livestock. That does not require a consortium of six scientific institutes to deliberate for 4 - 5 months.
So, rather than delay over crystal ball gazing dressed up with academic academic credentials, and perhaps other factors, such as who is going to pay for it at about £1 a dose, why not just get on and order the vaccine. The energies of the scientists could then be directed in arguing a much better case for how the EC should handle the situation, such as bringing its rules up to date with modern technology. Government officials could direct their energies to finding ways for the cost of the vaccine to be underwritten as it would appear that it is not worth taking EC money for the purpose, and the Scottish Government has little intention of paying for it. Bureaucratic incompetence is threatening to cost Scottish farmers dear. They would be far better to pay for it themselves and just get on with it. Most farmers that I know are more than willing to do so.
But apparently, in spite of all the fine words since FMD UK2001, real contingency planning only seems to begin once the disease has arrived, or is imminently about to do so. That is certainly not to the credit of the Government, nor of the scientists who, if they were truly independent, should be shouting from the roofs of their institutes (or homepages of their websites) that the present way of doing things does not make scientific sense. But instead, they appear happy to take the Government's money and do as they are asked within a tightly controlled remit.
So Scottish scientists, instead of leading the way in Europe as to how Bluetongue disease should be handled, simply add to the burden of thoughtless bureaucracy.
©www.land-care.org.uk
References
1. Irvine, James (2008). Defra order 22.2 million doses of Bluetongue serotype 8 vaccine for England for farmers to buy if they want to. What kind of health policy is that?
See HOMEPAGE, filed 20th Dec 08, www.land-care.org.uk Click Here to View
2. National Beef Association Scotland (2008). Petition to the European Commission calling for a common sense approach bases on sound science for the use of vaccine to protect livestock in Scotland from encroaching Bluetongue virus strain 8. Click Here to View
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